Necessary Roughness

Something else Iran has in common with Hugo Chavez…declining oil fields. The Washington Post reports that a National Academy of Sciences journal projects Iran’s oil income could be gone by 2015.

Iran’s economic woes could make the country unstable and vulnerable, with its oil industry crippled, Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University, said in the report and in an interview.

Iran earns about $50 billion a year in oil exports. The decline is estimated at 10 to 12 percent annually. In less than five years, exports could be halved, and they could disappear by 2015, Stern predicted.

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He said oil production is declining and both gas and oil are being sold domestically at highly subsidized rates. At the same time, Iran is neglecting to reinvest in its oil production.

Stern argues that Iran will collapse on itself, and we shouldn’t seek regime change with them. If the government weren’t trying to hasten the return of the 12^th Imam, I could see the point.

From an energy perspective, it’s a shame. Iran could reinvest in its oilfield and get nice returns on stimulating and recompleting its oil fields. Iran doesn’t have to become a North Korea.