In order for a “green car” to be more attractive fiscally than a normal car, the cost savings per month in gasoline needs to be more than the extra amount of monthly payment one incurs for the higher priced hybrid.

Trying to match apples to apples, this is a comparison of a Toyota Camry CE with a Toyota Camry Hybrid. Prices are available at toyota.com. Autos.yahoo.com reports an city mpg of 24 for the CE, and the Toyota site reports a city mpg of 40 for the hybrid. There is a big assumption here, that other than the engine the hybrid is more like the cheap CE than the more expensive models. This is a worst case scenario.

Gasoline cost per month = 30 * miles driven per day / miles per gallon * price per gallon

Fuel cost per month calculations:

  24 miles per gallon 40 miles per gallon
Miles Per Day $3/gal $4/gal $3/gal $4/gal
20 $75 $100 $45 $60
50 187.5 250 112 150
100 375 500 225 300

Assuming no trade-in, $1000 down, and an interest rate of 3%, the monthly payment of a 5-year loan for the $18470 CE would be $313.91. The $26,200 hybrid would be $452.81. Difference: $138.90 a month. There are federal tax deductions and credits for the hybrid, but they will be phased out by the fourth quarter of 2007.

Looking at the table, it seems the hybrid is cost effective if one drives 100 miles a day on average at $3/gal (375-225 = $150 in gas savings). If one averages just 50 miles a day, the vehicle only starts paying out at $6/gal.

100 miles per day for 5 years = 182,500 miles. That is one tired car. :)